Euro 2024 predictions: who to back and how to think about the tournament

Want an edge on Euro 2024 predictions? The smartest calls aren't guesses — they're choices based on form, fitness, and simple patterns you can spot before kickoff. Below I break down the favorite teams, a few dark-horse picks, and easy rules you can use whether you're making friendly bets or just arguing with mates.

How to make smart Euro 2024 predictions

Start with recent form. Look at results in qualifiers and warm-up matches, not just reputations. A team that has lost key players to injury or shows poor defensive shape in the last six games is riskier than a headline name with shaky form.

Check squad depth. Tournaments are won by teams that can replace starters without a drop in quality. If a top attacker picks up an injury, does the bench offer a like-for-like replacement? If not, downgrade that team in knockout predictions.

Pay attention to tactics and set pieces. Teams that defend set pieces badly or concede soft goals from corners tend to struggle in tight knockout games. Managers who rotate heavily might be strong in the long run but vulnerable in one-off matches.

Head-to-head and styles matter. If Team A presses high and Team B struggles against pressure, that matchup will be decisive even if Team B is technically stronger on paper. Use matchups more than rankings when predicting single games.

Favorites, dark horses and usable tips

Favorites to reach the late stages usually include France, England, Spain, Germany and Portugal. They have top-level talent, squad depth, and coaches used to big tournaments. For Euro 2024 predictions, treat them as the baseline: expect at least two of these teams in the semis unless injuries or shocking form changes the picture.

Dark horses often come from teams with a disciplined defense and a couple of creative outlet players. Look at nations like Switzerland, Denmark, or the Netherlands — they can beat anyone on a good day and tend to overperform expectations. A compact, organised side with a reliable goalkeeper is worth a small bet for a deep run.

Simple tips: 1) Avoid big parlays—single-match value bets win more over time. 2) Watch injury reports 48 hours before games; late absences swing odds fast. 3) Bankroll rules matter—stake a fixed small percentage of your bankroll per tip. 4) Consider match context: group-stage games with qualification already decided often see rotations and unpredictable lineups.

If you follow stats, focus on shots on target, expected goals (xG) trend, and defensive errors rather than raw possession numbers. Those metrics reveal who’s actually creating chances and who’s lucky.

Want a quick action plan? Pick one favorite for a deep run, one dark horse for a surprise, and use small single-game bets on matchups you understand. Keep notes on why you chose each pick — you’ll learn faster and make smarter Euro 2024 predictions next time.

Follow team news, coach quotes and starting lineups close to kickoff. That’s where most value appears. And remember: smart predictions are about managing risk, not trying to be perfect every time.