When Raila Amolo Odinga, former Prime Minister and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), announced his support for President William Ruto's coalition during a home interview in Karen on July 19, 2025, the political tide in Kenya shifted dramatically. The move, coming after Nairobi’s government threw its weight behind Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chairperson Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has left many wondering whether the 80‑year‑old veteran plans to chase the Kenyan presidency again in 2027.
Historical backdrop: From 2022 showdown to continental ambitions
The 2022 presidential race was a nail‑biter: the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced that Ruto secured 50.5% of the vote while Odinga trailed with roughly 48.8%, according to official tallies released on August 9, 2022. The loss marked Odinga’s fifth unsuccessful attempt at Kenya’s highest office—a fact even his staunchest supporters can’t ignore. After filing an electoral petition that was ultimately dismissed by the Supreme Court of Kenya on September 21, 2022, Odinga pivoted to street‑level activism, leading the “maandamano” protests over soaring living costs in July 2023.
Negotiations behind closed doors between the ODM and Ruto camps sparked a surprising reconciliation. By July 2024, the government publicly endorsed Odinga’s African Union candidacy—a stark reversal from years of opposition. Analysts point out that this shift mirrors Kenya’s broader “big‑tent” strategy, where former rivals are co‑opted to present a unified front on regional platforms.
Current developments: The AU chair race and domestic power‑shares
Odinga now finds himself in a three‑way contest for the AU commission seat, squaring off against Mohamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s foreign minister, and Richard Randriamandrato, a former foreign minister of Madagascar. By late September 2024, Odinga had secured endorsements from at least 20 African nations, ranging from Nigeria to Zambia, signaling a pan‑African foothold that could reshape the continent’s diplomatic agenda.
Back home, the political accommodation has produced visible perks for ODM allies: several senior party figures now occupy ministerial slots in Ruto’s “broad‑based” cabinet, from the Ministry of Transport to the newly created Office of Regional Integration. Yet, whispers in Nairobi’s political cafés suggest unease—some allies fear that Odinga’s continental focus might leave them vulnerable if the partnership crumbles.
Reactions from the field: Allies, opponents, and analysts
"Supporting Odinga on the AU stage is a win‑win for Kenya’s foreign policy," said Dr. Miriam Ochieng, a senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s School of Politics. "But domestically, the calculations are far trickier. Voters remember the 2022 defeat, and they’ll ask why their leader is busy abroad when household bills keep climbing."
Opposition figure Salim Mvurya, erstwhile deputy party leader, counters, "Odinga’s alignment with Ruto is nothing more than a political survival tactic. If he truly cares about Kenya, he should be preparing for 2027, not courting foreign dignitaries."
From the Kenyan government’s side, President Ruto himself remarked during a press briefing on August 2, 2025, "Our support for Odinga’s AU bid reflects the nation’s commitment to African unity. It should not be read as a sign that he will abandon his responsibilities at home."
Impact on the 2027 presidential landscape
Should Odinga decide to run again, he would have to juggle two massive campaigns: one for the AU chair in February 2025 and another for Kenya’s August 2027 polls. The timeline compresses campaign resources and risks voter fatigue. Moreover, his alliance with Ruto could be a double‑edged sword—while it grants him access to state machinery, it also ties his fortunes to a president whose approval ratings have dipped to 41% as of July 2025, according to a poll by GeoPoll.
Internal ODM sources tell us that the party’s national executive is holding a closed‑door meeting in early October 2025 to decide whether to endorse a fresh presidential bid or to consolidate its positions within the coalition government. The outcome could determine whether Kenya’s opposition front stays fragmented or regroups under a single banner.
What’s next? Tracking the unfolding saga
- February 2025: AU Commission chairperson election in Addis Ababa.
- June 2025: ODM national convention to set 2027 strategy.
- August 2025: Mid‑year opinion poll on voter sentiment toward Odinga’s dual ambitions.
- December 2025: Potential cabinet reshuffle if tensions within Ruto’s coalition rise.
Watch for any statements from Odinga after the AU vote—whether he claims victory, concedes, or pivots back to Nairobi’s political theatre will be the clearest indicator of his 2027 intentions.
Frequently Asked Questions
How might Odinga’s AU candidacy affect his chances in the 2027 Kenyan election?
The continental campaign gives Odinga heightened visibility across Africa, which could translate into diplomatic leverage at home. However, critics argue that focusing abroad risks alienating voters who are more concerned with local economic woes. If he wins the AU chair, constitutional rules may limit his ability to run for Kenya’s presidency simultaneously, forcing a strategic choice.
Who are the main rivals Odinga faces for the AU chair?
His key opponents are Mohamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s foreign minister, and Richard Randriamandrato, a former foreign minister of Madagascar. Both bring strong diplomatic résumés and backing from their respective regions, making the February 2025 vote highly competitive.
What does the current coalition mean for ODM party members in government?
ODM allies now hold ministries such as Transport, Housing, and Regional Integration, giving them direct influence over policy implementation. Yet, the arrangement is fragile; if Odinga’s AU campaign falters or if he signals an early departure from the coalition, those officials could face dismissal or reassignment.
What are the legal constraints on holding the AU chair while running for Kenyan president?
The AU constitution requires the chairperson to devote full attention to continental duties and forbids holding a national executive office. Kenyan law also bars individuals from simultaneously serving as a cabinet minister and a presidential candidate. Therefore, Odinga would need to resign from any Kenyan post—or forgo the AU role—if he decides to contest the 2027 election.
What do recent polls say about voter sentiment toward Odinga?
A GeoPoll survey conducted in July 2025 shows 38% of respondents view Odinga positively, while 45% remain undecided about his future plans. Support is strongest in the Rift Valley and Nairobi, but wanes in the coastal regions where economic concerns dominate political calculations.
20 Comments
jyoti igobymyfirstname October 7 2025
OMG this whole Odinga drama is like a soap opera that never ends lol
AMRESH KUMAR October 7 2025
Kenyan politics should stay focused on our own nation, not on African Union drama 😊
ritesh kumar October 8 2025
What they don't tell you is that the AU chair race is a front for a larger geopolitical chessboard. Western powers are using Odinga as a pawn to keep Kenya in their sphere, while Ruto secretly aligns with hidden financiers. Every cabinet reshuffle is just a signal to the shadow networks that control the oil pipelines. The real agenda is not about regional integration, it's about resource extraction contracts.
Raja Rajan October 9 2025
Strategic alliance makes sense on paper but voters will judge based on tangible outcomes.
Atish Gupta October 9 2025
While the numbers look good, we must remember that politics is also about people’s daily struggles – the cost of living, the hope for jobs, and the trust in leaders. A coalition that ignores grassroots pain will crumble faster than a sandcastle at high tide.
Aanchal Talwar October 10 2025
Honestly, I'm just waiting to see if he can juggle both roles.
Apu Mistry October 11 2025
Raila Odinga's political journey reads like a marathon that never stops, with each chapter revealing new twists and turns. From his early days championing multiparty democracy to the bitter 2022 showdown with Ruto, his resilience has become almost mythic. By backing the Ruto government, he signals a pragmatic shift that many see as a bid for relevance rather than pure ideology. Yet the timing of his endorsement raises eyebrows, especially given the looming AU chair election. The continental stage offers a platform where Kenya can amplify its diplomatic clout, but it also demands immense personal bandwidth. Balancing a high‑profile AU campaign with the day‑to‑day grind of Kenyan politics is a logistical nightmare that few have successfully navigated. Moreover, the Kenyan electorate remains deeply skeptical after years of economic hardship. Polls show a dwindling confidence in traditional heavyweight politicians, and Odinga is no exception. His age, while a testament to experience, also fuels concerns about longevity and adaptability. The coalition with Ruto provides access to state resources, yet it ties his fate to a president whose approval ratings are slipping. If Ruto's administration falters, Odinga could be dragged down by association. Conversely, a successful AU bid could boost his prestige and rally new supporters, especially among the youth yearning for a pan‑African identity. The internal dynamics within ODM are also in flux, with younger cadres pressing for fresh leadership. The secretive meetings slated for October will likely reveal whether the party intends to double‑down on the coalition or chart an independent course. International observers note that Africa's political landscape is increasingly interwoven with global power plays, making any AU appointment a strategic asset. In this tangled web, Odinga's next move will either cement his legacy as a statesman or relegate him to the role of a diplomatic placeholder.
uday goud October 12 2025
Indeed, the geopolitical ramifications are profound-one could argue that Odinga's AU ambition is a chess move that redefines Kenya's position on the continental board, potentially unlocking new trade corridors, diplomatic leverage, and soft power that transcends mere electioneering.
Chirantanjyoti Mudoi October 12 2025
While many celebrate the alliance, it's worth noting that coalition politics often dilutes policy clarity, leading to ambiguous governance that confuses voters.
Surya Banerjee October 13 2025
True, the mix of agendas can make it harder for the average citizen to know who to trust when promises are promised.
Sunil Kumar October 14 2025
So if you're looking for a masterclass in political juggling, just watch Odinga try to hold the AU chair, a Kenyan presidency, and a coalition cabinet all at once-popcorn optional.
Ashish Singh October 14 2025
One must, however, consider the constitutional implications of simultaneously occupying such distinct offices, as the legal framework provides clear prohibitions against dual mandates.
ravi teja October 15 2025
Honestly, I think the voters will just wait and see who delivers bread on the table.
Harsh Kumar October 16 2025
Exactly! 🌟 Positive change can still happen if leaders listen to the grassroots and prioritize economic relief.
suchi gaur October 16 2025
One cannot ignore the epistemic elegance with which Odinga navigates inter‑governmental hierarchies-truly a case study for political philosophers 📚.
Rajan India October 17 2025
Haha, yeah, it's like watching a reality TV show where the contestants are all wearing suits instead of dresses.
Parul Saxena October 18 2025
The convergence of regional aspirations with domestic political calculus invites a nuanced discourse on sovereignty and collective identity. When a veteran leader like Odinga steps onto the continental stage, he carries not only personal ambition but also the weight of national expectation. This duality can generate a tension between fulfilling supranational duties and addressing immediate local grievances. Scholars argue that such a scenario tests the elasticity of democratic institutions, challenging them to accommodate multi‑layered representation. Yet the ultimate measure remains the electorate's perception: whether they view the AU role as an extension of their influence or a distraction from pressing socioeconomic concerns. In any case, the unfolding narrative offers fertile ground for comparative political analysis.
Ananth Mohan October 18 2025
Indeed the balance is delicate and will shape Kenya's future political landscape.
Abhishek Agrawal October 19 2025
Contrary to popular belief, the alliance may actually empower opposition voices by forcing the ruling party to compromise on key reforms; this unintended consequence could invigorate civil society and promote greater accountability!!!
Rajnish Swaroop Azad October 20 2025
So the drama continues and we watch the stage lights flicker.