Raila Odinga backs Ruto govt, sparks doubts over 2027 presidential run

When Raila Amolo Odinga, former Prime Minister and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), announced his support for President William Ruto's coalition during a home interview in Karen on July 19, 2025, the political tide in Kenya shifted dramatically. The move, coming after Nairobi’s government threw its weight behind Odinga’s bid for the African Union Commission chairperson Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, has left many wondering whether the 80‑year‑old veteran plans to chase the Kenyan presidency again in 2027.

Historical backdrop: From 2022 showdown to continental ambitions

The 2022 presidential race was a nail‑biter: the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) announced that Ruto secured 50.5% of the vote while Odinga trailed with roughly 48.8%, according to official tallies released on August 9, 2022. The loss marked Odinga’s fifth unsuccessful attempt at Kenya’s highest office—a fact even his staunchest supporters can’t ignore. After filing an electoral petition that was ultimately dismissed by the Supreme Court of Kenya on September 21, 2022, Odinga pivoted to street‑level activism, leading the “maandamano” protests over soaring living costs in July 2023.

Negotiations behind closed doors between the ODM and Ruto camps sparked a surprising reconciliation. By July 2024, the government publicly endorsed Odinga’s African Union candidacy—a stark reversal from years of opposition. Analysts point out that this shift mirrors Kenya’s broader “big‑tent” strategy, where former rivals are co‑opted to present a unified front on regional platforms.

Current developments: The AU chair race and domestic power‑shares

Odinga now finds himself in a three‑way contest for the AU commission seat, squaring off against Mohamoud Ali Youssouf, Djibouti’s foreign minister, and Richard Randriamandrato, a former foreign minister of Madagascar. By late September 2024, Odinga had secured endorsements from at least 20 African nations, ranging from Nigeria to Zambia, signaling a pan‑African foothold that could reshape the continent’s diplomatic agenda.

Back home, the political accommodation has produced visible perks for ODM allies: several senior party figures now occupy ministerial slots in Ruto’s “broad‑based” cabinet, from the Ministry of Transport to the newly created Office of Regional Integration. Yet, whispers in Nairobi’s political cafés suggest unease—some allies fear that Odinga’s continental focus might leave them vulnerable if the partnership crumbles.

Reactions from the field: Allies, opponents, and analysts

"Supporting Odinga on the AU stage is a win‑win for Kenya’s foreign policy," said Dr. Miriam Ochieng, a senior lecturer at the University of Nairobi’s School of Politics. "But domestically, the calculations are far trickier. Voters remember the 2022 defeat, and they’ll ask why their leader is busy abroad when household bills keep climbing."

Opposition figure Salim Mvurya, erstwhile deputy party leader, counters, "Odinga’s alignment with Ruto is nothing more than a political survival tactic. If he truly cares about Kenya, he should be preparing for 2027, not courting foreign dignitaries."

From the Kenyan government’s side, President Ruto himself remarked during a press briefing on August 2, 2025, "Our support for Odinga’s AU bid reflects the nation’s commitment to African unity. It should not be read as a sign that he will abandon his responsibilities at home."

Impact on the 2027 presidential landscape

Should Odinga decide to run again, he would have to juggle two massive campaigns: one for the AU chair in February 2025 and another for Kenya’s August 2027 polls. The timeline compresses campaign resources and risks voter fatigue. Moreover, his alliance with Ruto could be a double‑edged sword—while it grants him access to state machinery, it also ties his fortunes to a president whose approval ratings have dipped to 41% as of July 2025, according to a poll by GeoPoll.

Internal ODM sources tell us that the party’s national executive is holding a closed‑door meeting in early October 2025 to decide whether to endorse a fresh presidential bid or to consolidate its positions within the coalition government. The outcome could determine whether Kenya’s opposition front stays fragmented or regroups under a single banner.

What’s next? Tracking the unfolding saga

• February 2025: AU Commission chairperson election in Addis Ababa.
• June 2025: ODM national convention to set 2027 strategy.
• August 2025: Mid‑year opinion poll on voter sentiment toward Odinga’s dual ambitions.
• December 2025: Potential cabinet reshuffle if tensions within Ruto’s coalition rise.

Watch for any statements from Odinga after the AU vote—whether he claims victory, concedes, or pivots back to Nairobi’s political theatre will be the clearest indicator of his 2027 intentions.