The streets of Rome are buzzing, and the Stadio Olimpico is about to host the 186th Derby della Capitale. After two opening‑day losses, both Lazio and Roma need a win to shake off early‑season blues. Fans expect fireworks, but injuries could steal the spotlight.
Team news and likely line‑ups
Lazio arrive after a 1‑0 defeat at Sassuolo. Coach Maurizio Sarri will likely stick to a 4‑3‑3, but the starting eleven hinges on the fitness of a few key players. Goalkeeper Ivan Provedel is a given, backed by a back four of Adam Marušić, Mario Gila, Alessio Romagnoli and Nuno Tavares. In midfield, Sarri prefers Matteo Guendouzi, but the inclusion of Nicolo Rovella depends on a late medical. If Rovella is a no‑show, Fisayo Dele‑Bashiru could slot in.
Up front, the striker’s spot is a toss‑up. Valentin Castellanos has been a headache for the medical staff, and if he doesn’t make the trip, Boulayé Dia will lead the line. Former Roma man Pedro Rodríguez could earn a surprise start, giving Sarri a more creative edge.
Roma, coached by Francesco Calzona after Gasperini’s departure, are also missing big names. Paulo Dybala and Leon Bailey sit out with muscle problems, while wing‑back Wesley is battling flu. The Giallorossi are expected to line up in a 3‑4‑2‑1. Goalkeeper Mile Svilar will guard the net, with a back three of Mehmet Zeki Celik, Gianluca Mancini and Evan N'Dicka.
- Wing‑backs: Devyne Rensch and Angelino providing width.
- Midfield pivots: Kouadio Kone and Bryan Cristante anchoring the centre.
- Attacking midfield: Matías Soule and Lorenzo Pellegrini linking play.
- Striker: Evan Ferguson, who could become the first player in a decade to net his inaugural Roma derby goal.
Both benches are packed with doubts. Lazio’s defensive trio—Samuel Gigot (ankle), Patric (hamstring) and Manuel Lazzari (thigh)—are sidelined. Roma’s Mario Hermoso (calf) remains questionable. The final XI may only be confirmed minutes before kickoff.
What the odds say
Bookmakers are treating this as a tight affair. Roma enter as slight favourites at odds around 2.65, while Lazio sit at roughly 2.80. The prevailing market sentiment favours an under‑2.5‑goals result, reflecting the defensive caution both managers are likely to adopt.
From a betting perspective, a draw offers decent value given the historical balance—Roma hold 69 wins to Lazio’s 51 in 185 meetings, with 65 draws in the mix. The last encounter in April 2025 ended 1‑1, a reminder that even when one side seems stronger on paper, the derby can produce any scoreline.
Beyond the odds, the tactical battle will be fascinating. Sarri’s 4‑3‑4 could overload the right flank, trying to exploit Roma’s occasional vulnerability there. Calzona’s three‑man defence aims to compress space, forcing Lazio to play through the middle where rookie midfielder Fisayo Dele‑Bashiru could impress.
For the supporters, the stakes go beyond three points. Lazio’s win would lift them out of the lower mid‑table, injecting confidence early on. Roma, sitting in sixth, cannot afford another slip if they aim for European football.
When the whistle blows, it will be a test of mental strength as much as skill. With several starters missing, the match could hinge on which squad better adapts to the chaos. One thing is clear: the 186th Derby della Capitale will add another dramatic chapter to Roman football history.